Image: Getty Images (Anna Barclay)

Image: Getty Images ( Giles Clarke/UNOCHA)

Many terrorist groups have now made concerted efforts to assist and train their members in operating drones for attacks. Driven by their increased accessibility, an Islamic State supporter on a Telegram channel shared a new magazine aimed at assisting jihadists on how to use new modern warfare technology. It notably analyses seven commercially available drones, rating them for their abilities in media production, surveillance operations, and attacks.

Drones have also become a central feature of terrorist propaganda, a trend we assess is highly likely to increase. An Islamic State post in May 2024 depicted a weaponised drone flying towards the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid ahead of a Champions League fixture. This imagery, coupled with the caption ‘if they constrict and oppress you on the ground, then strike them from the sky’, indicates the group's intent to encourage drone attacks as an offensive weapon against high-profile targets.

The use of drone footage has also become commonplace in propaganda production. Edited footage of terrorist attacks taken by drones from Islamic State West Africa and JNIM is swiftly shared across social media, viewed thousands of times. These videos are a clear demonstration of the jihadist organisations' technological prowess, a valuable tool in highlighting a group’s strength to potential recruits.

Easy access to and sophisticated adaptation of these devices have
resulted in attack drones no longer being exclusively a tool of national militaries. Terrorist groups have continuously innovated and adapted commercially available drones, transforming them from surveillance tools into versatile weapons.

The war in Ukraine has contributed to the rapid evolution of drone tactics. In just a few years, such devices and their use in combat have developed dramatically. In Ukraine, drones have transitioned from often expensive tools of limited use into cheap, autonomous and effective weapons systems. The war has fundamentally altered battlefield tactics, proving that affordable and sophisticated drone capabilities are becoming an increasingly important part of military and, indeed, terrorist strategy.

This global technological innovation has spread globally to other conflict zones, with drone attacks by terrorist groups becoming increasingly prevalent. Islamic State paved the way with attack drones in Iraq and Syria in the 2010s. Now groups operating in areas of Colombia, Pakistan and the Middle East frequently use commercial drones modified with crude triggers to drop explosives on targets.

Similarly, in West Africa, organisations like the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jamaat Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) are using ‘off the shelf’ devices to monitor planted explosive devices or military bases, therefore allowing them to mount attacks of greater complexity.

Drone attacks by terrorists

Drones reshaping the global terrorism landscape

The use of commercial drones in terrorist attacks across the Sahel and West Africa appears to have rapidly increased in 2025. Groups elsewhere in the continent, such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia and IS-Mozambique, have used such devices sporadically to surveil targets in the past five years.

Still, our monitoring of online footage of attacks and extremist channels suggests that groups across West Africa and the Sahel now frequently use drones for surveillance during attacks and to drop explosives. The Azawad Liberation Front, a Tuareg rebel group in northern Mali, has also
published several videos of kamikaze drone attacks against the Malian military this year.

Case study:
Drones aiding offensives in the Sahel

On 23 April, JNIM mounted an attack on a military base on the outskirts of Soudougui in southeastern Burkina Faso.

Case study:
Drones extending the operational reach of Colombian guerrillas

The use of drones by guerrilla groups has changed the dynamics of the decades-long conflict in Colombia.

In the past, the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) mainly employed armed ambushes and car bombs to attack Colombian security forces. These guerrillas have often killed civilians as well – either inadvertently or deliberately – as part of their attempts to control rural populations.

While local press outlets reported sporadically on such groups using drones since 2015, they primarily used them to surveil their opponents in the dense woodland and mountainous terrain of conflict zones.

Image: Getty Images (RAUL ARBOLEDA/AFP)

Image: Getty Images (STR/AFP)

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For now, terrorist drone activity appears largely restricted to rural conflict areas. With greater ease, terrorist groups can now more effectively achieve their objectives, destroying military assets, threatening local populations and expanding their territorial gains.

Should the authorities remain incapable of countering such attacks, terrorist groups will probably be emboldened to use drones to mount attacks in urban areas as well.

Militaries fighting terrorist groups globally seem ill-equipped to counter attacks enhanced by the use of drone technology and attacks from drones mounted with explosives. Anti-drone devices present a potential solution, but this technology has not been adopted at a sufficient scale to dissuade terrorists. And terrorist groups have proven resilient and innovative, constantly several steps ahead of the authorities, suggesting they will be quick to think of new methods of mounting attacks.

The rapid development of new drone technologies also affords operators with new and inventive methods for deploying these devices. Weapons manufacturers and militaries globally are seeking to innovate with drone swarms, low-flying stealth drones and fibre optic drones impervious to jamming. Terrorists are undoubtedly watching closely; the battlefield application of new drone tactics has consistently been rapidly replicated by militants.

Artificial intelligence in particular presents a problem. Ukraine has also already sent drones into Russia that were deployed independently of human control, having been trained to find a suitable target before attacking it. UN attempts to reach an agreement to restrict lethal autonomous weapon systems have been ongoing for almost a decade, without a consensus. Terrorist groups will almost certainly find such technology an incredibly attractive prospect.

Terrorist groups determined to mount attacks where they are currently thwarted by robust counter-terrorism structures, such as in the US or Western Europe, are likely watching these developments closely as well. There have, so far, not been any major terrorist attacks in such countries with a drone. But incidents of malicious drone use at airports in recent years have caused severe disruption to operations and have sparked concerns in governments of a security gap. The ease with which commercial drones can be weaponised means there is an ongoing concern for counter-terrorism forces.

Drone tactics are therefore highly likely to become a key feature of terrorist operations in the coming years.

We anticipate continued use of explosive-laden drones in 2025 and the coming years, heightening the already high risk of bombing attacks for security forces and civilians. Indeed, General Luis Emilio Cardozo Santamaria, commander of the Colombian army, stated in April that drones are ‘a threat that is here to stay’.

Terrorist groups in Afghanistan, India, Iraq, Myanmar, Pakistan and Syria have also used drones in similar ways to those in the Sahel and Colombia.

The widespread availability of cheap commercial drones means they
are becoming an increasingly attractive form of attack for groups in conflict zones.

In one month in 2023, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria launched 25 drone attacks targeting US military forces and bases as part of a large coordinated offensive. Iran has shared its technology and information with armed groups it supports in the region for several years.

Global use of drones now seems likely

"The dynamics of the conflict are no longer those long-term battles, as in the past, but the launching of explosives by both sides, between the public force and the armed groups, which have sometimes fallen on the homes of humble people"

Access to drones seems to be extending the operational reach of guerrilla groups across rural areas. They can now conduct cheap, highly accurate attacks against key targets whilst striking fear among security forces and local populations.

As a local mayor told a local radio station earlier this year:

While effective, military jamming devices have many drawbacks. They are expensive and pose the risk of drones – and any payloads they are carrying – falling on civilian sites when deployed in urban areas. And government forces already struggle to govern in many rural areas where they operate, let alone properly implement drone defence measures. Guerrillas are well-funded from their drug trafficking, illegal mining and extortion activities and would be able to quickly replace any downed drones.

The Colombian government is now seeking to introduce new legislation to regulate and restrict the use of drones throughout the country. But this is unlikely to deter or restrict the abilities of guerrillas, who already extensively use smuggling routes across international borders.