Outlook 2021
EUROPE
A chance for renewal
EURASIA
Controlled competition
WEST & CENTRAL AFRICA
Widening disparities
EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA
A slow and bumpy recovery
NORTH AFRICA
Stability in jeopardy
MIDDLE EAST
Old rivalries, new alliances
SOUTH ASIA
Pushing boundaries and borders
ASIA PACIFIC
Brinkmanship and detente
LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
Reliance and restiveness
NORTH AMERICA
Rebuilding trust
Editors
Henry Wilkinson, Jesper Cullen
Graphic Design
Lindsay Lombard, Kevin FrimpongContributors
Alexander Stonor, Barbara Keleman, Francisco Mazzola, Hannah Poppy, Henry Wilkinson, Hugo Crosthwaite,
Jesper Cullen, Joel Gulhane, Manish Gohil, Stephanie Karra, Thomas Murphy, Tim Powdrill, Tristan Gueret,
Will Johnston, Zaynab Olyabek
LEADER
Control and containment
METHODOLOGY
A user guide
ABOUT SIAS
An intelligence capability
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STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2021
A GLOBAL SECURITY FORECAST
SIAS | SECURITY INTELLIGENCE & ANALYSIS SERVICE First published January 2021 by The Risk Advisory Group Ltd
3 More London Riverside, London, SE1 2AQ, United Kingdom © 2021 The Risk Advisory Group Ltd
SIAS | SECURITY INTELLIGENCE & ANALYSIS SERVICE
The Risk Advisory Group Ltd is a leading independent global risk consultancy that helps businesses grow whilst protecting their people, their assets and their brands. The driving purpose of Risk Advisory’s Intelligence and Security practice is to reduce clients’ security-risk anxiety and free them up to achieve their goals, knowing their people, assets and reputation are safe. By providing facts, intelligence, analysis and security expertise Risk Advisory helps its clients negotiate complex and uncertain environments to choose the right opportunities, in the right markets, with the right partners.
www.riskadvisory.com
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be printed or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Cover image: Yasuyoshi Chiba/Getty Images
Contents images: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
Outlook 2021
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2021
A GLOBAL SECURITY FORECAST
SIAS | SECURITY INTELLIGENCE & ANALYSIS SERVICE First published January 2021 by The Risk Advisory Group Ltd
3 More London Riverside, London, SE1 2AQ, United Kingdom © 2021 The Risk Advisory Group Ltd
SIAS | SECURITY INTELLIGENCE & ANALYSIS SERVICE
The Risk Advisory Group Ltd is a leading independent global risk consultancy that helps businesses grow whilst protecting their people, their assets and their brands. The driving purpose of Risk Advisory’s Intelligence and Security practice is to reduce clients’ security-risk anxiety and free them up to achieve their goals, knowing their people, assets and reputation are safe. By providing facts, intelligence, analysis and security expertise Risk Advisory helps its clients negotiate complex and uncertain environments to choose the right opportunities, in the right markets, with the right partners.
www.riskadvisory.com
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be printed or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Cover image: Yasuyoshi Chiba/Getty Images
Contents images: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
Editors
Henry Wilkinson, Jesper Cullen
Graphic Design
Lindsay Lombard, Kevin FrimpongContributors
Alexander Stonor, Barbara Keleman, Francisco Mazzola, Hannah Poppy, Henry Wilkinson, Hugo Crosthwaite,
Jesper Cullen, Joel Gulhane, Manish Gohil, Stephanie Karra, Thomas Murphy, Tim Powdrill, Tristan Gueret,
Will Johnston, Zaynab Olyabek
01
02
06
05
03
04
07
08
09
10
EUROPE
A chance for renewal
EURASIA
Controlled competition
WEST & CENTRAL AFRICA
Widening disparities
EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA
A slow and bumpy recovery
NORTH AFRICA
Stability in jeopardy
MIDDLE EAST
Old rivalries, new alliances
SOUTH ASIA
Pushing boundaries and borders
ASIA PACIFIC
Brinkmanship and detente
LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
Reliance and restiveness
NORTH AMERICA
Rebuilding trust
ABOUT SIAS
An intelligence capability
METHODOLOGY
A user guide
LEADER
Control and containment