Strategic Outlook 2021 is a global security and geopolitical estimate. Its primary focus is to provide an expansive set of assessments on crisis and security challenges in 2021, but also a strategic overview of macro trends and geopolitics that shape and define risks.

Our forecasts draw upon a mixture of data analysis and intelligence, political science, and threat and risk assessment. But the final call always rests on a qualitative estimative judgement. Our analysts are regional and thematic specialists; our approach is collaborative and emphasises creative thinking, rigorous peer review and red teaming.  
                     

Before writing the Strategic Outlook, we speak with sources, identify and reconsider our assumptions, look back at what we have previously forecast, and consider the questions or issues that our clients have been asking us about. We also draw on open-source research and conduct targeted intelligence-gathering. We aim to present our forecasts in plain English, using visualisations to add context and transparency.

Methodology

gettyimages-550216263... (copy)
PROBABILISTIC SCALE
THREAT AND RISK LEVELS
2

TREND INDICATORS

These are net judgements on whether we anticipate — on balance — security and political risks to grow, stabilise or lessen over the course of 2021.

FORECASTING RANGES
The Strategic Outlook covers the coming year, but many of the issues, risks and trends we assess are liable to run beyond 2021.
forecasting_ranges.png

Methodology

gettyimages-550216263... (copy)

Strategic Outlook 2021 is a global security and geopolitical forecast. Its primary focus is to provide an expansive set of assessments on crisis and security challenges in 2021, but also a strategic overview of macro trends and geopolitics that shape and define risks.

Our forecasts draw upon a mixture of data analysis and intelligence, political science, and threat and risk assessment. But the
final call always rests on a qualitative estimative judgement. Our analysts are regional and thematic specialists; our approach is collaborative and emphasises creative thinking, rigorous peer review and red teaming.  
                     

Before writing the Strategic Outlook, we speak with sources, identify and reconsider our assumptions, look back at what we have previously forecast, and consider
the questions or issues that our clients
have been asking us about. We also
draw on open-source research and
conduct targeted intelligence-gathering. We aim to present our forecasts in plain English, using visualisations to add context and transparency.

The Strategic Outlook covers the coming year, but many of the issues, risks and trends we assess are liable to run beyond 2021.
forecasting_ranges.png
PROBABILISTIC SCALE
FORECASTING RANGES
We use a scale of measured probabilistic terms to convey assessments. The strength of probability reflects our confidence in these assessments, based on the quality of information and other factors. Such terms do not indicate fact, certainty, proof, or knowledge, but reasoned judgements.
Probabilistic scale
THREAT AND RISK LEVELS
Risk Advisory uses a six-point system for its threat and risk levels, with different ratings for 16 different typologies of threat, risk, hazard and vulnerability. Our levels range from negligible threat or risk (1) to critical or extreme (6). Full definitions for each risk typology and risk level are available to SIAS clients on the Methodology pages of the Risk Advisory SIAS website.
Threat diagram
2

TREND INDICATORS

These are net judgements on whether we anticipate — on balance — security and political risks to grow, stabilise or lessen over the course of 2021.