What is the outlook for the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group in 2025 – and why does it matter now?

As global focus shifts to great-power competition and the risk of interstate conflict, terrorism is no longer a top-tier threat for many global organisations. But it appears that IS and its affiliates are quietly regrouping, adapting, and expanding in regions where state control is weak and security vacuums persist.

The Long War is Dragonfly’s second Strategic Outlook 2025 Intelligence Spotlight report. It provides a strategic intelligence assessment of the evolving threat posed by IS and its global network, highlighting the implications for international security and corporate risk in the coming year.

This report challenges the idea that terrorism is yesterday’s problem. For corporate security leaders and geopolitical risk professionals, understanding IS’s potential resurgence is essential for anticipating operational threats in volatile regions – and for avoiding strategic blind spots.

What to expect in this report:

• A headline assessment on the likely trajectory of IS in 2025

• Strategic analysis of regional trends and operational hotspots

• Forecasts with early warning indicators across multiple geographies

• Visual analysis of IS targeting patterns and threat landscapes