Key markets such as India, Nigeria and Indonesia will probably be worst affected, as they are among the most climate-vulnerable. But no country will be immune, as climate-related security risks are likely to intensify across all regions. Enhanced resource scarcity, including of water and arable land, for example, is likely to heighten competition and trigger conflicts. In Southeast Asia, the likelihood of inter-communal violence will increase due to dwindling Mekong River resources. While in Latin America, climate change-driven deforestation will probably heighten disputes over agricultural land. 

Climate risks are very likely to present opportunities for extremists and organised criminal groups. They create conditions that are conducive to recruitment, radicalisation and exploitation. Anarchist groups across Europe, for example, will probably continue exploiting popular concerns and anxiety about environmental breakdown to reinforce their extremist ideologies. Likewise in South Asia, rising sea levels – which the UN says could displace up to 40m people by 2030 – are likely to lead to more human trafficking and slavery. 

Global efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate risks are also shaping geopolitics. Cross-border tensions are likely to grow over the coming year as governments struggle to reach consensus on how best to reduce their emissions and who should bear the costs. International cooperation on climate action is likely to break down as major emitters fail to compensate the most vulnerable for loss and damages – resulting in a more fragmented policy and regulatory landscape.

The pursuit of critical materials required for low-carbon technologies is also very likely to grow over the coming 12 months and beyond, exacerbating tensions between states and aggravating security risks in source countries. The development of lithium resources in Kashmir, for example, will probably compound existing security challenges there between the governments of India and Pakistan. As the race to dominate the renewable energy sector accelerates, increased military posturing and geopolitical manoeuvring is likely in areas – such as the Arctic, outer space and the deep sea – with major deposits.

Frustration with the widening gap between climate change action and ambition is very likely to lead to a surge in grassroots movements, protests and advocacy for more robust climate policies. While this will probably in turn drive increased awareness and urgency around the need to build climate resilience, it may also lead to civil unrest, violent clashes with the authorities and wider societal and business disruptions, testing the resilience of societies and global businesses alike.