Strategic Outlook 2024

With over 180+ pages, discover our regional analysis, scenarios, Resilience Perceptions Survey and more.
Strategic Outlook 2024

Editor-in-chief: Henry Wilkinson

Managing editor: Matt Ince

Design: Lindsay Lombard, Matteo Zanre, Syennie Valeria

Editors: Hannah Poppy, Joel Gulhane, Pierre-Louis Le Goff

Contributing analysts: Barbara Kelemen, Ben Hiorns, Byron Cabrol, Carl-Johan Carlstedt, David Dalton, Eddie Bejarano, Flavien Baumgartner, Francis Lee-Saunders, Hannah Poppy, Henry Wilkinson, Hossam Abougabal, Ilias Koutroulis, Jim Kerres, Joe McArdle, Joel Gulhane, John Sunerton, Jonah Kaplan, Kirsten Phelps, Lauren O’Loughlin, Maria Harrison, Manish Gohil, Martin Quick, Matt Ince, Megan Campbell, Paolo Napolitano, Pierre-Louis Le Goff, Sebastian Bruhn, Sofia Martinez Fernandez, Tamara Naidoo, Zoe Ciaccio.

Dragonfly would also like to thank the many industry colleagues, on-the-ground sources, contacts, external analysts and partners who contributed to Strategic Outlook 2024.


First published in November 2023 by Dragonfly Eye Ltd

SQB, Canary Wharf, London, E14 9SH, United Kingdom

© 2023 Dragonfly Eye Ltd

Dragonfly is a private intelligence service to professionals who guide decision-making in the world’s leading organisations. From the highest risk environments to the boardroom, we enable our clients to make confident decisions and put them ahead of security and crisis risks.

Powered by data and AI, analysed by experts, and enhanced by community, FiscalNote's policy and global intelligence solutions help you navigate rapidly evolving political, corporate and regulatory environments. Combining technology, data and insights to help you stay ahead of political and business risk.

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Cover image: Produced on Midjourney, an AI image generator.

Welcome to Strategic Outlook 2024: The Resilience Gap, our tenth annual forecast on geopolitics and global security risks and the first since Dragonfly was acquired by FiscalNote in 2023.

In Strategic Outlook 2024, we assess the trajectories of risks and look to the future, with over 500 forecasts, thematic analyses, scenarios, events to watch and interactive visualisations. We also present our first Resilience Perceptions Survey that gives insight into how global organisations view the challenges ahead.

This year for the first time, we have made our top level thematic assessments open to all in this microsite. The full Strategic Outlook report, including all the regional forecasts, is downloadable in PDF format.

The theme throughout this edition is questioning whether the risks we identify are evolving faster than governments and global organisations are able to keep up with. And whether, in the wake of the polycrises of recent years, adequate attention and resources are being given to building resilience against the risks that we anticipate await us over the horizon. 

Forecasting even at its best is, as we always caution, a speculative and probabilistic exercise. The futures we imagine in Strategic Outlook are neither facts nor certainties, and we will undoubtedly fail to foresee certain developments. But they are scenarios that in our judgement, would be prudent to explore and prepare for if one is to maintain time and decision-making advantage, and build resilience. 

As ever, I must express my sincere thanks and appreciation for our outstanding team at Dragonfly who I have the privilege to lead and work with. The production of Strategic Outlook is an undertaking that exemplifies the spirit of collaboration, intellectual challenge, rigour, creativity and the highest regard to serve our valued clients. These qualities define both Dragonfly and FiscalNote in our mission to empower organisations with critical insights and the tools to turn them into action.

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Welcome to

Outlook 2024

Henry Wilkinson
Chief Intelligence Officer, Dragonfly