Migration prompted by hardship, drought and the subsequent close proximity of animals to humans will probably increase the risk of cross-species pathogen transmission. Inadequate medical and detection facilities in peripheral regions together with poor border management can result in a rapid spread, including across borders. Neighbouring countries are likely to implement health protocols at border crossings, slowing freight transport. And the threat of infections spreading to economic hubs would in turn carry a reasonable chance of air and land border restrictions.   

Growing popular dissent related to hardship is likely to be a trigger for the authorities implementing partial or full internet shutdowns. By using surveillance technology to track opposition and anti-government activists in Angola, Uganda and Ethiopia, there is at least a reasonable chance these governments will attempt to quell large protests through restricting internet access. Although these disruptions are likely to be brief, there is a low – but not inconsequential – chance that specific social media platforms will be restricted over brief periods. 

Government shortages of foreign currency stemming from high dollar-denominated public debt is likely to be a key driver for macroeconomic challenges. This directly and indirectly plays into the risk of hardship protests. Those challenges include local currencies performing poorly and inflation rising. In turn, governments’ inability to pay for fuel will probably cause recurrent shortages. Cities in particular are likely to see a deterioration in the operational environment, where the knock-on effect on the rising cost of living will probably prompt frequent hardship protests.