Images: Getty Images (Jeff Pachoud; Mateusz Slodkowski; Franco Origlia; Attila Kisbenedek)
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2023
Europe | Top five risk drivers
Above-average prices will remain a key driver of activism, civil unrest and supply chain disruption through 2023. High public debt will probably constrain governments’ ability to mitigate the effects of galloping inflation, particularly where public spending in 2022 was inflated, like in France, Hungary and Italy. Unions and activists are likely to use public discontent to mobilise protests and strikes, with knock-on effects for supply chains. We anticipate that this will further reduce public support of aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, undermining the West’s posture against Moscow.