Images: Getty Images (Ryad Kramdi; Khaled Desouki; Johanna Geron; TPG)
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2023
North Africa | Top five risk drivers
Weak fiscal positions, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia, mean spending on provisions aimed at supporting the poorest is likely to drop. This will probably increase the popular influence of and reliance on communal groups for financial help. Such a shift would very likely weaken the trust many communities have in state institutions. And it would pose a security risk if such developments erode wider civic identity and push up disenfranchisement; both are key opportunities for jihadists to recruit young people.