The US appears to be accelerating its focus in South Asia towards regional competition with China. The US relationship with Pakistan and others will probably remain ambiguous amid competition from China. But the US will very likely try to increase strategic cooperation with India to counter Chinese regional influence. Regional players will probably have to pick sides over the next few years, most notably on issues such as trade deals, military cooperation agreements and security guarantees.

Growing authoritarian tendencies among leaders across the region will likely drive up state agencies risks in 2023, particularly in Afghanistan, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. This would likely include introducing restrictions on freedom of expression and eroding protections for civil society groups and religious minorities. Governments will also likely implement legislation restricting the use of social media and the internet. Expanded government surveillance and monitoring would likely have operational implications on other sectors such as the media, NGOs and foreign tech firms. 

Growing nationalist ideology, particularly in India, is very likely to be a driver of inter-communal violence in 2023. A controversial Hindu-nationalist statement by a senior leader of the ruling BJP party carries a high risk of triggering violence. This has a high potential for contagion, not just at a national or regional level but also in the Gulf or Europe where there are large South Asian diasporas. Both violence and inflammatory rhetoric carry a heightened potential for diplomatic disputes and consumer boycotts.