Images: Getty Images (Boureima Hama; Olympia De Maismont; Nipah Dennis; Stefan Heunis)
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2023
West & Central Africa | Top five risk drivers
Future dry and wet periods in the Sahel are likely to become more extreme, according to the UNHCR. Climate-related concerns are likely to continue to drive competition for arable land and water, fuelling inter-communal violence in countries such as Nigeria, Mali and Burkina Faso. But it will probably also have wider impacts. Lower-yielding harvests will drive up food prices in metropolitan areas. And as well as making hardship protests and unrest more likely, a rising cost of living will drive up broader regime instability risks.