Change is coming

A spread of the civil war,
the resulting humanitarian crisis, and a potential
genocide in Ethiopia would
also have broader and potentially profound implications for stability in
East Africa and beyond. 

04
East and
Southern Africa

Engulfed by Ethiopia’s crisis

Insecurity and instability in Ethiopia are likely to persist into 2022. As well as the civil war between the Ethiopian government and the TDF and its allies, there is pervasive inter-communal and militia violence. The crisis in Ethiopia is also spilling – and is likely to further spill – over into other regional countries, affecting security, migration patterns and economic growth.

Domestic insecurity
Migration
Food security
Logistics
Trade
Regional implications

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Change is
coming

A build-up of systemic weaknesses, socio-economic pressures and political factionalism across much of East and Southern Africa will very probably come to a head in 2022. The region as a whole will be particularly exposed to the destabilising effects of highly probable crises in two of its leading economies.

We forecast further outbreaks of large and potentially-violent protests and unrest in South Africa in 2022. The government is distracted by a split in the ANC party, meanwhile the economy continues to suffer. GDP in per capita terms has fallen each of the past six years, while unemployment has risen steadily over the past decade, with almost half of all young adults out of work.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is almost certain to drag well into 2022 in South Africa. Recent periods of violent unrest, such as in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in July 2021, have hampered foreign investment and economic growth. These are very likely to recur. Caught in a cycle of ongoing governance challenges and Covid-19 hindering recovery, there is little prospect of these negative economic trends reversing in 2022. The frequency of outbreaks of unrest and demonstrations has exploded in recent years, as public patience with worsening socio-economic conditions wears thin. 

Frustrations over poor public services and standards of living will remain the two most probable triggers for a sudden outbreak of protests and unrest in South Africa in 2022. But ongoing tensions and factionalism in the ANC party are also likely drivers of civil disquiet. It is widely accepted that supporters of the former president Jacob Zuma were responsible for instigating the violent unrest in KwaZulu-Natal in July. And we warn that Mr Zuma and his supporters will probably try to instigate similar commotion in 2022, as a way to undermine the president. Flashpoints for this include Mr Zuma’s ongoing corruption trial, and the leadup to the ANC party conference in December 2022. >>

Ethiopia is already in a state of civil conflict, which shows every sign of intensifying, destabilising the state, and drawing in outside powers. And South Africa is vulnerable to significant political and social upheaval in the coming year. 

This will hurt the growth and long-term stability prospects for both. And as leading economies in the region, crises in both countries will have knock-on implications for their neighbours, allies and adversaries, including on migration, economic growth and trade. Separately, we anticipate that other major economies with contentious elections, such as in Angola and Kenya, are likely to get through 2022 largely unscathed. But they are exceptions to what is a broadly negative outlook.

About to boil over

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Forecasts

East and Southern Africa

Dates to watch

Key indicators


Migration flows

A worsening conflict in Ethiopia is putting neighbouring countries under additional political and economic strain. This is likely to result in knock-on crises in countries such as Eritrea, Kenya, South Sudan and Somalia, in particular resource and inter-communal conflicts. In a worst case scenario this would lead Kenya to push the African Union to consider intervening militarily in Ethiopia.


Covid-19 vaccination rates

Demand for multiple doses of vaccines in other parts of the world has meant that many countries in Africa are struggling to secure sufficient doses. As the region lags behind in vaccinating populations, it will remain vulnerable to new waves of Covid-19 infections, strained healthcare systems and snapbacks in restrictions. This is likely to also add as a drag on economic recoveries, and will contribute to many of the persisting risks around unrest and political instability.


Commodity prices

With many regional economies reliant on commodity exports, rising prices provide some cause for optimism as countries recover from the financial impact of the pandemic. But these price rises are far from stable, and supply chain constraints mean that resulting government revenues will remain volatile. The critical nature of commodity sectors to the region also give trade unions considerable political leverage as they try to extract better conditions for workers. And so rising commodity prices will contribute to more industrial action.

 

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Images: Getty Images (Brian Otieno; Patrick Meinhardt; Ashraf Shazly)

East and Southern Africa

End of Ramadan

1 May

Ethiopia

Derg Downfall Day - End
of military rule

28 May

Ethiopia

Independence Day

24 May

Somaliland

Anniversary of the breakaway from Somalia

18 May

South Africa

Anniversary of Nelson Mandela being elected president in 1994

9 May

East and Southern Africa

Eid Al-Fitr

2 May–3 May

Rwanda

Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the 1994 Genocide

7 April

East and Southern Africa

Start of Ramadan

2 April

Uganda

Martyrs' Day

3 June

East and Southern Africa

Earth Day

22 April

East and Southern Africa

Annunciation Day

25 March

Mozambique

Anniversary of Palma attack in Cabo Delgado

24 March–5 April

Kenya

Fifth session of the UN Environment Assembly
in Nairobi

28 February–2 March

Kenya

Anniversary of Nairobi’s Dusit hotel terror attack in 2019

15 January

East and
Southern Africa

Orthodox Christmas Eve

6 January

South Africa

Zondo Commission

Ongoing

Ethiopia

Rainy season

June–September

Ethiopia

Anniversary of killing of Hachalu Hundessa

29 June

Somalia

Anniversary of 2017 Safari Hotel bombing

14 October

KENYA

Independence Day

12 December

South Africa

ANC conference

December

Lesotho 

National and local elections

Before December

Botswana

Rainy season

December–March

Regionwide

African Union Summit

Before December

Ethiopia

Anniversary of outbreak of Tigray War

3 November

Mauritius

Cyclone season

November–April

Uganda

Independence Day

9 October

Eritrea

Rainy season

July - August

Kenya

Anniversary of the Westgate attack

21 August

South Africa

Anniversary of Marikana mine massacre in 2012

16 August

Kenya

General election

9 August

Mozambique

Anniversary of Renamo peace deal signed in 2019

6 August

East and Southern Africa

Ashura

7 August–8 August

East and Southern Africa

Eid Al-Adha

9 July

South Africa

Anniversary of 2021 Durban unrest

9 July–18 July

Mozambique

Cyclone season

January–March

Change is coming

A spread of the civil war,
the resulting humanitarian crisis, and a potential
genocide in Ethiopia would
also have broader and potentially profound implications for stability in
East Africa and beyond. 

04
East and
Southern Africa

For best results
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Forecasts

Key indicators


Migration flows

A worsening conflict in Ethiopia is putting neighbouring countries under additional political and economic strain. This is likely to result in knock-on crises in countries such as Eritrea, Kenya, South Sudan and Somalia, in particular resource and inter-communal conflicts. In a worst case scenario this would lead Kenya to push the African Union to consider intervening militarily in Ethiopia.


Covid-19 vaccination rates

Demand for multiple doses of vaccines in other parts of the world has meant that many countries in Africa are struggling to secure sufficient doses. As the region lags behind in vaccinating populations, it will remain vulnerable to new waves of Covid-19 infections, strained healthcare systems and snapbacks in restrictions. This is likely to also add as a drag on economic recoveries, and will contribute to many of the persisting risks around unrest and political instability.


Commodity prices

With many regional economies reliant on commodity exports, rising prices provide some cause for optimism as countries recover from the financial impact of the pandemic. But these price rises are far from stable, and supply chain constraints mean that resulting government revenues will remain volatile. The critical nature of commodity sectors to the region also give trade unions considerable political leverage as they try to extract better conditions for workers. And so rising commodity prices will contribute to more industrial action.

 

Insecurity and instability in Ethiopia are likely to persist into 2022. As well as the civil war between the Ethiopian government and the TDF and its allies, there is pervasive inter-communal and militia violence. The crisis in Ethiopia is also spilling – and is likely to further spill – over into other regional countries, affecting security, migration patterns and economic growth.

Uganda

Independence Day

9 October

East and Southern Africa

End of Ramadan

1 May

Ethiopia

Derg Downfall Day - End
of military rule

28 May

Ethiopia

Independence Day

24 May

Somaliland

Anniversary of the breakaway from Somalia

18 May

South Africa

Anniversary of Nelson Mandela being elected president in 1994

9 May

East and Southern Africa

Eid Al-Fitr

2 May–3 May

Rwanda

Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the 1994 Genocide

7 April

East and Southern Africa

Annunciation Day

2 April

Uganda

Martyrs' Day

3 June

East and Southern Africa

Earth Day

22 April

East and Southern Africa

Annunciation Day

25 March

Mozambique

Anniversary of Palma attack in Cabo Delgado

24 March–5 April

Kenya

Fifth session of the UN Environment Assembly
in Nairobi

28 February–2 March

Kenya

Anniversary of Nairobi’s Dusit hotel terror attack in 2019

15 January

East and
Southern Africa

Orthodox Christmas Eve

6 January

South Africa

Zondo Commission

Ongoing

Ethiopia

Rainy season

June–September

Ethiopia

Anniversary of killing of Hachalu Hundessa

29 June

Lesotho 

National and local elections

Before December

Ethiopia

Anniversary of outbreak of Tigray War

3 November

KENYA

Independence Day

12 December

South Africa

ANC conference

December

Botswana

Rainy season

December–March

Regionwide

African Union Summit

Before December

Mauritius

Cyclone season

November–April

Eritrea

Rainy season

July - August

Somalia

Anniversary of 2017 Safari Hotel bombing

14 October

Kenya

Anniversary of the Westgate attack

21 August

South Africa

Anniversary of Marikana mine massacre in 2012

16 August

Kenya

General election

9 August

Mozambique

Anniversary of Renamo peace deal signed in 2019

6 August

East and Southern Africa

Ashura

7 August–8 August

East and Southern Africa

Eid Al-Adha

9 July

South Africa

Anniversary of 2021 Durban unrest

9 July–18 July

Mozambique

Cyclone season

January–March

Change is
coming

A build-up of systemic weaknesses, socio-economic pressures and political factionalism across much of East and Southern Africa will very probably come to a head in 2022. The region as a whole will be particularly exposed to the destabilising effects of highly probable crises in two of its leading economies.

We forecast further outbreaks of large and potentially-violent protests and unrest in South Africa in 2022. The government is distracted by a split in the ANC party, meanwhile the economy continues to suffer. GDP in per capita terms has fallen each of the past six years, while unemployment has risen steadily over the past decade, with almost half of all young adults out of work.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is almost certain to drag well into 2022 in South Africa. Recent periods of violent unrest, such as in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in July 2021, have hampered foreign investment and economic growth. These are very likely to recur. Caught in a cycle of ongoing governance challenges and Covid-19 hindering recovery, there is little prospect of these negative economic trends reversing in 2022. The frequency of outbreaks of unrest and demonstrations has exploded in recent years, as public patience with worsening socio-economic conditions wears thin. 

Frustrations over poor public services and standards of living will remain the two most probable triggers for a sudden outbreak of protests and unrest in South Africa in 2022. But ongoing tensions and factionalism in the ANC party are also likely drivers of civil disquiet. It is widely accepted that supporters of the former president Jacob Zuma were responsible for instigating the violent unrest in KwaZulu-Natal in July. And we warn that Mr Zuma and his supporters will probably try to instigate similar commotion in 2022, as a way to undermine the president. Flashpoints for this include Mr Zuma’s ongoing corruption trial, and the leadup to the ANC party conference in December 2022. >>

Ethiopia is already in a state of civil conflict, which shows every sign of intensifying, destabilising the state, and drawing in outside powers. And South Africa is vulnerable to significant political and social upheaval in the coming year. 

This will hurt the growth and long-term stability prospects for both. And as leading economies in the region, crises in both countries will have knock-on implications for their neighbours, allies and adversaries, including on migration, economic growth and trade. Separately, we anticipate that other major economies with contentious elections, such as in Angola and Kenya, are likely to get through 2022 largely unscathed. But they are exceptions to what is a broadly negative outlook.

About to boil over

Images: Getty Images (Brian Otieno; Patrick Meinhardt; Ashraf Shazly)

Offline: This content can only be displayed when online.

Engulfed by Ethiopia’s crisis

East and Southern Africa