A build-up of systemic weaknesses, socio-economic pressures and political factionalism across much of East and Southern Africa will very probably come to a head in 2022. The region as a whole will be particularly exposed to the destabilising effects of highly probable crises in two of its leading economies.‬

We forecast further outbreaks of large and potentially-violent protests and unrest in South Africa in 2022. The government is distracted by a split in the ANC party, meanwhile the economy continues to suffer. GDP in per capita terms has fallen each of the past six years, while unemployment has risen steadily over the past decade, with almost half of all young adults out of work.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is almost certain to drag well into 2022 in South Africa. Recent periods of violent unrest, such as in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in July 2021, have hampered foreign investment and economic growth. These are very likely to recur. Caught in a cycle of ongoing governance challenges and Covid-19 hindering recovery, there is little prospect of these negative economic trends reversing in 2022. The frequency of outbreaks of unrest and demonstrations has exploded in recent years, as public patience with worsening socio-economic conditions wears thin. 

Frustrations over poor public services and standards of living will remain the two most probable triggers for a sudden outbreak of protests and unrest in South Africa in 2022. But ongoing tensions and factionalism in the ANC party are also likely drivers of civil disquiet. It is widely accepted that supporters of the former president Jacob Zuma were responsible for instigating the violent unrest in KwaZulu-Natal in July. And we warn that Mr Zuma and his supporters will probably try to instigate similar commotion in 2022, as a way to undermine the president. Flashpoints for this include Mr Zuma’s ongoing corruption trial, and the leadup to the ANC party conference in December 2022. >>

Ethiopia is already in a state of civil conflict, which shows every sign of intensifying, destabilising the state, and drawing in outside powers. And South Africa is vulnerable to significant political and social upheaval in the coming year. 

This will hurt the growth and long-term stability prospects for both. And as leading economies in the region, crises in both countries will have knock-on implications for their neighbours, allies and adversaries, including on migration, economic growth and trade. Separately, we anticipate that other major economies with contentious elections, such as in Angola and Kenya, are likely to get through 2022 largely unscathed. But they are exceptions to what is a broadly negative outlook.