IS-K influence in Afghanistan

The growing political and military presence of Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) in Afghanistan would not only be an indication of a faltering security environment there, but also of a rising terrorism threat globally. Signs of this are a continuation of weekly to near-daily IS-K attacks in Kabul, as well as frequent mass casualty attacks in major cities. At this level of capability, the group would more likely than not be able to control some rural parts in Afghanistan’s east and generate revenue through taxes and extortion that allow it to expand its operational capabilities in the region and beyond. The impact of this would also be felt in Pakistan, with IS-K attacks becoming more frequent by the end of the year.

Protests in India

The trajectory of the government’s response to farmers’ protests in 2022 is a key monitoring point to assess growing discontent and the risk of unrest in India. The protest movement will probably continue in several states in 2022, even though the prime minister repealed contentious laws regulating agriculture in November. This is because agricultural poverty remains an issue for many farmers, and because fertiliser shortages will probably continue to frustrate output. How the government handles these ongoing protests next year – by cracking down on rallies, instrumentalising the Supreme Court, blocking internet at protest sites and censoring social media – would also indicate weakening governance standards in the future.

Security environment in Kashmir

A worsening security environment in Kashmir is a key monitoring point for assessing the threat and risk of terrorism across India next year. This would be caused by a rising influx of foreign fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan into the state, which we expect would probably start from March onwards, and have spillover effects into other parts of India. Other indicators of a worsening security environment include an increased capability of militant groups such as the use of bombs or drones for complex attacks in Kashmir that could also be used elsewhere. Activity or announcements from previously rather inactive groups such as AQIS or IS-Hind would point to a rising terrorism threat in the country.

The strategic outlook for South Asia in 2022 is largely negative. The economic impacts of the pandemic and climate change will present headwinds for a region facing deepening insecurity within and between states.