Probabilistic terms
Threat and risk levels
Forecasting ranges
Impact/change effects
The Strategic Outlook covers the coming year, but many of the issues, risks and trends we assess are liable to run into the longer term beyond 2022.
Forecasting ranges
We use Dragonfly as our North Star for strategic planning in our global aviation security efforts and reactionary analysis when needed. Specifically, SIAS provides clear and concise geopolitical analysis of situations emerging and opaque in nature. The tone of the analysis, short and long form narrative, and the ability to engage with analysts directly from the Dragonfly team puts them into a class of their own. Whilst Dragonfly is a recognised IATA Strategic Partner, their work with us and other civil aviation stakeholders meaningfully contributes to the on-going safety and security of civil aviation.
Matthew Vaughan, Director, Aviation Security & Cyber (ACyS), IATA
Dragonfly is unique among our intelligence vendors in their ability to concisely (yet comprehensively) explain pertinent geopolitical security developments and anticipate their impact on our business.
Director of Global Intelligence, International travel and hospitality company
Senior Intelligence Analyst, International defence organisation
Dragonfly SIAS is one of our most trusted partners. Their intelligence products provide clarity and insight on a broad array of security topics. The ability to interface directly with their analyst team has been invaluable to supplementing our global security awareness.
Strategic Outlook 2022 is a global security and geopolitical estimate. Its primary focus is to provide an expansive set of assessments on geopolitical risks, crisis risks and instability, and security challenges in 2022.
Our forecasts draw upon a mixture of data analysis and intelligence, political science, and threat and risk assessments. But the final call always rests on a qualitative estimative judgement. Our analysts are regional and thematic specialists; our approach is collaborative and emphasises creative thinking, rigorous peer review and red teaming.
Before writing the Strategic Outlook, we speak with our global source network, identify and reconsider our assumptions, look back at what we have previously forecast, and consider the questions or issues that our clients have been asking us about. We also draw on open-source research and conduct targeted intelligence-gathering. We aim to present our forecasts in plain English, using visualisations to add context and transparency.
Dragonfly uses a six-point system for its threat, risk, hazard and vulnerability levels. Our levels range from negligible (1) to critical/extreme (6). We maintain over 15,000 individual ratings across our risk typologies, covering more than 200 countries and territories, and more than 700 cities globally. The full range suite of risk levels, and comprehensive methodology for each risk typology and risk level, are available to SIAS users.
Threat and risk levels
The impact/change effect metric indicates the degree of positive or negative impact that we anticipate a forecast will have on risks, and the degree to which the realised scenario would precipitate changes to the outlook.
Impact/change effects
Probabilistic terms
We use a scale of measured probabilistic terms to convey assessments. The strength of probability reflects our confidence in these assessments, based on the quality of information and other factors. Such terms do not indicate fact, certainty, proof, or knowledge, but reasoned judgements.
The Strategic Outlook covers the coming year, but many of the issues, risks and trends we assess are liable to run into the longer term beyond 2022.
Forecasting ranges
Senior Intelligence Analyst, International defence organisation
Dragonfly SIAS is one of our most trusted partners. Their intelligence products provide clarity and insight on a broad array of security topics. The ability to interface directly with their analyst team has been invaluable to supplementing our global security awareness.
Strategic Outlook 2022 is a global security and geopolitical estimate. Its primary focus is to provide an expansive set of assessments on geopolitical risks, crisis risks and instability, and security challenges in 2022.
Our forecasts draw upon a mixture of data analysis and intelligence, political science, and threat and risk assessments. But the final call always rests on a qualitative estimative judgement. Our analysts are regional and thematic specialists; our approach is collaborative and emphasises creative thinking, rigorous peer review and red teaming.
Before writing the Strategic Outlook, we speak with our global source network, identify and reconsider our assumptions, look back at what we have previously forecast, and consider the questions or issues that our clients have been asking us about. We also draw on open-source research and conduct targeted intelligence-gathering. We aim to present our forecasts in plain English, using visualisations to add context and transparency.
