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The dashboard provides a summary overview of our forecasts for threats and risks across key countries in each region. These cover a range of security, stability and crisis risk areas such as regime instability, conflict, crime and terrorism. The Trends and Outlook chart indicates our net forecasts on whether the risk outlook through 2022 is of improving, broadly consistent, or worsening risks.
RISK DASHBOARD
Intelligence manager at an international entertainment company
The Strategic Outlook provides a rigorous and insightful assessment of the most significant security challenges facing businesses in the year ahead. We find it particularly useful for stress testing our own internal assessments, and in helping us to identify the key emerging issues and trends that could have implications for our operations.
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2022
First published in December 2021 by Dragonfly Eye Ltd
3 More London Riverside, London, SE1 2AQ, United Kingdom
© 2021 Dragonfly Eye Ltd
Dragonfly is a private intelligence service to professionals who guide decision-making in the world’s leading organisations. From the highest risk environments to the boardroom,
we enable our clients to make confident decisions and put them ahead of security and crisis risks.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be printed or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented,
including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Cover image: Al Drago-Pool/Getty Images
ISBN:
Editor-in-chief: Henry Wilkinson
Managing editor: Thomas Murphy
Editor: Hannah Poppy
Graphic design: Nick Bryan, Lindsay Lombard, Matteo Zanre
Contributing analysts: Alexander Stonor, Barbara Kelemen, Carl-Johan Carlstedt, Charlie Burnett Rae, Danny Morris, Filippo Cutrera, Flavien Baumgartner, Francis Lee-Saunders, Hannah Poppy,
Henry Wilkinson, Hugo Crosthwaite, Joel Gulhane, Jonah Kaplan, Lauren O'Loughlin, Maite Reece, Mark Vasey, Max Romer, Mia Bradford, Michael Lubieszko, Mihaela Luchian, Paolo Napolitano,
Pierre-Louis Le Goff, Thomas Murphy, Tobias Wellner and Zaynab Olyabek
Dragonfly would also like to thank the many industry colleagues, on-the-ground sources, contacts, external analysts and partners who contributed to Strategic Outlook 2022.
Our eighth annual global intelligence estimate on geopolitical and global security risks.
Henry Wilkinson
Chief Intelligence Officer
It is with great pleasure that we present Strategic Outlook 2022. This is our eighth annual global intelligence estimate on geopolitical and global security risks for those whose decision-making and planning relies on anticipation and a more informed estimation of the future.
We produce the Strategic Outlook to be a resource referred to throughout the year. This year it contains more than 520 forecasts, and some 350 early warning indicators and dates to watch, to help our clients monitor events and recognise their significance, and plan accordingly.
As well as regional and thematic intelligence estimates, this year we present interactive risk dashboards for each region. These highlight and score the key risks and their trajectories in all major markets. There are also infographics to illuminate key threat and risk areas and trends.
As we trust any intelligence organisation with integrity would admit, some of our probabilistic forecasts will undoubtedly prove wrong. And we may very well not foresee the next strategic surprise of greatest impact. Such is the nature of black swan events that seem all the more likely at a time of so much change and instability.
None of this diminishes the importance of forecasting, anticipation, scenario analysis and early warning. Such exercises are essential for strategic planning, resilience and preparedness. If we stimulate discussion and decision-making to further those ends, then we have fulfilled our goal.
David Claridge
Chief Executive Officer
There has never been more need for strategic security decision-makers to access accurate, anticipatory, actionable intelligence as they steer their organisations through a progressively more challenging risk landscape.
Risk management success is no longer gauged by achieving an objective and getting back in one piece. It is essential to understand the influence and impact of a business’ words and actions, and the profound effects that the sentiment that ripples (and sometimes rips) back, can have. And to keep thinking ahead, adjusting and re-adjusting as circumstances and situations change.
It is against this backdrop that, in the middle of 2021, we took the plunge to launch Dragonfly. Having spent many years honing our geopolitical intelligence services as Risk Advisory’s Intelligence and Analysis practice, the time was right to take on a new identity and a new focus: a private intelligence service for professionals who protect their organisations and facilitate their success. Dragonfly brings continuity with our past, but with renewed focus on the craft of intelligence and clarity of communication.
All of which I hope is evident in this eighth annual Strategic Outlook; our first as Dragonfly. Like Dragonflies, we aim to take a 360° slow motion perspective. That is reflected in the quality of the forecasts of our expert team. Our commitment to vivid and engaging presentation is fully on display; without doubt this is the richest and most visually engaging Strategic Outlook yet. I hope you find it helpful in shaping and challenging your decision-making for the coming year.
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2022
First published in December 2021 by Dragonfly Eye Ltd
3 More London Riverside, London, SE1 2AQ, United Kingdom
© 2021 Dragonfly Eye Ltd
Dragonfly is a private intelligence service to professionals who guide decision-making in the world’s leading organisations. From the highest risk environments to the boardroom,
we enable our clients to make confident decisions and put them ahead of security and crisis risks.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be printed or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented,
including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Cover image: Al Drago-Pool/Getty Images
ISBN:
Editor-in-chief: Henry Wilkinson
Managing editor: Thomas Murphy
Editor: Hannah Poppy
Graphic design: Nick Bryan, Lindsay Lombard, Matteo Zanre
Contributing analysts: Alexander Stonor, Barbara Kelemen, Carl-Johan Carlstedt, Charlie Burnett Rae, Danny Morris, Filippo Cutrera, Flavien Baumgartner, Francis Lee-Saunders, Hannah Poppy,
Henry Wilkinson, Hugo Crosthwaite, Joel Gulhane, Jonah Kaplan, Lauren O'Loughlin, Maite Reece, Mark Vasey, Max Romer, Mia Bradford, Michael Lubieszko, Mihaela Luchian, Paolo Napolitano,
Pierre-Louis Le Goff, Thomas Murphy, Tobias Wellner and Zaynab Olyabek
Dragonfly would also like to thank the many industry colleagues, on-the-ground sources, contacts, external analysts and partners who contributed to Strategic Outlook 2022.
Key indicators are early warning indicators
to watch. They are specific information points
or developments that we flag to help readers track whether our forecasts in Strategic Outlook are on their way to realisation, or taking a
different trajectory.
KEY INDICATORS
This section provides a regional overview of potential flashpoints and dates to watch for those whose decisions hinge upon geopolitical and strategic security risks. Dates include potential political or security flashpoints,
key anniversaries, weather or storm seasons, and major summits or diplomatic events.
DATES TO WATCH
These convey specific forecasts on important issues and aim to capture potential high-impact scenarios that would shape risks and result in changes in 2022 and beyond. Each forecast is scored by probability and the potential impact (both positive and negative) the scenario would have on risk and effecting change. To reduce the risk of strategic surprise, challenge assumptions and present ideas for crisis planning, we capture important and probable scenarios as well as disruptive outliers, and low-probability
high-impact events.
FORECASTS
We use a variety of infographics to
illustrate our assessments, the basis
of our ideas, causal relations, and to
ensure key issues are easy to grasp
in a visual format.
INFOGRAPHICS
Each regional section highlights the themes and trends that we anticipate will define
and shape events in the coming year.
These contain specific forecasts but also
aim to serve as a lens through which
to interpret events and anticipate the trajectories of risks in 2022.
REGIONAL KEYNOTE
The dashboard provides a summary overview of our forecasts for threats and risks across key countries in each region. These cover a range of security, stability and crisis risk areas such as regime instability, conflict, crime and terrorism. The Trends and Outlook chart indicates our net forecasts on whether the risk outlook through 2022 is of improving, broadly consistent, or worsening risks.
RISK DASHBOARD
Intelligence manager at an international entertainment company
The Strategic Outlook provides a rigorous and insightful assessment of the most significant security challenges facing businesses in the year ahead. We find it particularly useful for stress testing our own internal assessments, and in helping us to identify the key emerging issues and trends that could have implications for our operations.
Henry Wilkinson
Chief Intelligence Officer
It is with great pleasure that we present Strategic Outlook 2022. This is our eighth annual global intelligence estimate on geopolitical and global security risks for those whose decision-making and planning relies on anticipation and a more informed estimation of the future.
We produce the Strategic Outlook to be a resource referred to throughout the year. This year it contains more than 520 forecasts, and some 350 early warning indicators and dates to watch, to help our clients monitor events and recognise their significance, and plan accordingly.
As well as regional and thematic intelligence estimates, this year we present interactive risk dashboards for each region. These highlight and score the key risks and their trajectories in all major markets. There are also infographics to illuminate key threat and risk areas and trends.
As we trust any intelligence organisation with integrity would admit, some of our probabilistic forecasts will undoubtedly prove wrong. And we may very well not foresee the next strategic surprise of greatest impact. Such is the nature of black swan events that seem all the more likely at a time of so much change and instability.
None of this diminishes the importance of forecasting, anticipation, scenario analysis and early warning. Such exercises are essential for strategic planning, resilience and preparedness. If we stimulate discussion and decision-making to further those ends, then we have fulfilled our goal.
David Claridge
Chief Executive Officer
There has never been more need for strategic security decision-makers to access accurate, anticipatory, actionable intelligence as they steer their organisations through a progressively more challenging risk landscape.
Risk management success is no longer gauged by achieving an objective and getting back in one piece. It is essential to understand the influence and impact of a business’ words and actions, and the profound effects that the sentiment that ripples (and sometimes rips) back, can have. And to keep thinking ahead, adjusting and re-adjusting as circumstances and situations change.
It is against this backdrop that, in the middle of 2021, we took the plunge to launch Dragonfly. Having spent many years honing our geopolitical intelligence services as Risk Advisory’s Intelligence and Analysis practice, the time was right to take on a new identity and a new focus: a private intelligence service for professionals who protect their organisations and facilitate their success. Dragonfly brings continuity with our past, but with renewed focus on the craft of intelligence and clarity of communication.
All of which I hope is evident in this eighth annual Strategic Outlook; our first as Dragonfly. Like Dragonflies, we aim to take a 360° slow motion perspective. That is reflected in the quality of the forecasts of our expert team. Our commitment to vivid and engaging presentation is fully on display; without doubt this is the richest and most visually engaging Strategic Outlook yet. I hope you find it helpful in shaping and challenging your decision-making for the coming year.
Our eighth annual global intelligence estimate on geopolitical and global security risks.