It is very unlikely that President Biden will be able to prevent the kind of rancorous politics from political leaders that will stoke polarity and energise extremist narratives and action.
America
Resurgent disruptors
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Forecasts
North America
Dates to watch
Key indicators
Investigations into Donald Trump
Criminal investigations into former president Donald Trump’s business affairs in New York and his efforts in Georgia to overturn results of the 2020 presidential election will be a key indicator of the US’ political direction in the coming years. A criminal conviction that bars him from holding elected office would probably give way to a leadership contest to determine the Republican party’s future direction. In the shorter term, moves to indict him would also be likely to renew a sense of motivation among right-wing extremists to carry out acts of violence.
Inflation in the US
The rate of inflation will probably be an important factor for whether President Biden is able to deliver on key policy areas. Failure to bring it under control would be highly likely to stifle the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery, and make moderate Democratic members of congress reluctant to back further government spending measures. And further rises to the cost of living would probably boost the Republican party’s chances of regaining control of both houses of congress at the mid-term elections in November 2022.
Lopez Obrador and the opposition
In Mexico, President Lopez Obrador’s ability to gain support among opposition deputies in congress will determine his ability to pass major reforms in 2022. Most require a two-thirds majority in both houses, which the governing coalition lost at mid-term elections in June 2021. If Mr Lopez Obrador is able to gain the backing of members of the PRI, changes to the country’s energy framework to favour state companies would be likely. It would also probably encourage the president to try to amend the constitution to seek a second term in office.
United States
Independence Day
4 July
United States
Anniversary of Parkland shooting of 14 February 2018
14 February
North America
Annunciation Day
25 March
North America
Start of Ramadan
2 April
North America
Earth Day
22 April
North America
End of Ramadan
1 May
North America
Eid Al-Fitr
2 May - 3 May
North America
Hurricane season
June–November
North America
Eid Al-Adha
9 July
United States
Rainy season in Florida
June–November
North America
Ashura
7 August–8 August
United States
Anniversary of the 9/11 attacks
11 September
United States
UN General Assembly -
77th session
13 September–27 September
United States
Rainy season in Hawai
November–March
United States
Legislative elections
8 November
North America
Orthodox Christmas Eve
6 January
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Resurgent
disruptors
President Joe Biden faces a raft of internal and external challenges that threaten to upset his policy agenda in 2022, and his party’s control of Congress. Bitter partisanship and unsettling polarity in American politics and society appear as entrenched as ever ahead of the midterms.
The emergence of Omicron shows the high potential for significant disruption to both recovery and Mr Biden’s signature plans, as does a resurgent current of Trumpism. The domestic security situation will probably remain volatile in 2022, albeit improved on recent years.
While the political climate in the US has improved since the turbulence of the 2020 presidential election, deep partisan divisions over political, social and economic issues continue to dominate. External risks posing internal problems, not least the pandemic, growing global instability, strategic competition with China, and the impact of all these on global supply chains and growth, will also be inescapable pressures on recovery and growth. And all will compound the challenges Mr Biden faces amid sinking approval ratings.
In both his domestic and foreign policy a common theme seems to be Mr Biden going all in for a big wins legacy. Most notable is his ambitious social policy and infrastructure bills that envisage as much as $3 trillion spent over the coming decade. His strategy to compete with China also requires, among other things, persuading allies to adopt policies that risk putting them on a confrontational path with Beijing when economic recovery requires them to have more stable and neutral relations. His approach will probably only yield diluted results in 2022.
Whether Mr Biden can deliver on his promises of unity and a ‘new dawn’ in US leadership is a critical question, not only for the outcome of the midterm elections but also for the risk outlook now and throughout his term. He will probably struggle to do so and our core forecast is that, as a result, the Democrats are likely to lose control of Congress in November. And amidst this we expect that Trumpism, if not Donald Trump himself, will be a resurgent feature shaping political discourse, sustaining a raft of risks, and uncertainty over the direction America will take beyond 2022. >>
Unemployment rate
Home ownership rate
Two Americas
2020 election vote
Homicide rate
Life expectancy
Illiteracy
Gun ownership rate
Source: Federal Electoral Commission
America’s political culture has become ever more polarised in recent years. Our analysis of data across a range of economic,
socio-economic and societal metrics suggests that the US is starkly divided into two and that this division runs deeper than whether a state is red, blue
or purple. Instead, it presents a picture of two Americas, shown on the map. One is, on balance, richer, healthier and safer. While the data suggests the other has worse economic, socio-economic and societal outcomes.
TWO AMERICAS
Polarisation beyond politics
Images: Getty Images (Spencer Platt; Samuel Corum; Mark Wilson; Drew Angerer; Hector Vivas)
Risk dashboard
Infographic
Assessment
Forecasts
Dates to watch
Key indicators
Resurgent disruptors
It is very unlikely that President Biden will be able to prevent the kind of rancorous politics from political leaders that will stoke polarity and energise extremist narratives and action.
America
Forecasts
For best results
We recommend that you view this in a desktop browser. If using a tablet or smartphone, some infographics may only respond to device-specific gestures.
Key indicators
Investigations into Donald Trump
Criminal investigations into former president Donald Trump’s business affairs in New York and his efforts in Georgia to overturn results of the 2020 presidential election will be a key indicator of the US’ political direction in the coming years. A criminal conviction that bars him from holding elected office would probably give way to a leadership contest to determine the Republican party’s future direction. In the shorter term, moves to indict him would also be likely to renew a sense of motivation among right-wing extremists to carry out acts of violence.
Inflation in the US
The rate of inflation will probably be an important factor for whether President Biden is able to deliver on key policy areas. Failure to bring it under control would be highly likely to stifle the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery, and make moderate Democratic members of congress reluctant to back further government spending measures. And further rises to the cost of living would probably boost the Republican party’s chances of regaining control of both houses of congress at the mid-term elections in November 2022.
Lopez Obrador and the opposition
In Mexico, President Lopez Obrador’s ability to gain support among opposition deputies in congress will determine his ability to pass major reforms in 2022. Most require a two-thirds majority in both houses, which the governing coalition lost at mid-term elections in June 2021. If Mr Lopez Obrador is able to gain the backing of members of the PRI, changes to the country’s energy framework to favour state companies would be likely. It would also probably encourage the president to try to amend the constitution to seek a second term in office.
North America
Hurricane season
June–November
United States
Anniversary of Parkland shooting of 14 February 2018
14 February
North America
Annunciation Day
25 March
North America
Start of Ramadan
2 April
North America
Earth Day
22 April
North America
End of Ramadan
1 May
North America
Eid Al-Fitr
2 May - 3 May
United States
Independence Day
4 July
North America
Eid Al-Adha
9 July
United States
Rainy season in Florida
June–November
North America
Ashura
7 August–8 August
United States
Anniversary of the 9/11 attacks
11 September
United States
UN General Assembly -
77th session
13 September–27 September
United States
Rainy season in Hawai
November–March
United States
Legislative elections
8 November
North America
Orthodox Christmas Eve
6 January
Resurgent
disruptors
President Joe Biden faces a raft of internal and external challenges that threaten to upset his policy agenda in 2022, and his party’s control of Congress. Bitter partisanship and unsettling polarity in American politics and society appear as entrenched as ever ahead of the midterms.
The emergence of Omicron shows the high potential for significant disruption to both recovery and Mr Biden’s signature plans, as does a resurgent current of Trumpism. The domestic security situation will probably remain volatile in 2022, albeit improved on recent years.
While the political climate in the US has improved since the turbulence of the 2020 presidential election, deep partisan divisions over political, social and economic issues continue to dominate. External risks posing internal problems, not least the pandemic, growing global instability, strategic competition with China, and the impact of all these on global supply chains and growth, will also be inescapable pressures on recovery and growth. And all will compound the challenges Mr Biden faces amid sinking approval ratings.
In both his domestic and foreign policy a common theme seems to be Mr Biden going all in for a big wins legacy. Most notable is his ambitious social policy and infrastructure bills that envisage as much as $3 trillion spent over the coming decade. His strategy to compete with China also requires, among other things, persuading allies to adopt policies that risk putting them on a confrontational path with Beijing when economic recovery requires them to have more stable and neutral relations. His approach will probably only yield diluted results in 2022.
Whether Mr Biden can deliver on his promises of unity and a ‘new dawn’ in US leadership is a critical question, not only for the outcome of the midterm elections but also for the risk outlook now and throughout his term. He will probably struggle to do so and our core forecast is that, as a result, the Democrats are likely to lose control of Congress in November. And amidst this we expect that Trumpism, if not Donald Trump himself, will be a resurgent feature shaping political discourse, sustaining a raft of risks, and uncertainty over the direction America will take beyond 2022. >>
Images: Getty Images (Spencer Platt; Samuel Corum; Mark Wilson; Drew Angerer; Hector Vivas)